It's Just Math
AI desks + human card. Units. Records. Win %. It's Just Math.
Bryan Pearson · Deep Research Challenge · Aug 2026 · name TBD for domain
Only desks with tickets · swipe
It's Just Math · daily tickets
Pick a desk
Singles · Parlays · Ladder · Humans — one stop
One official straight per desk · history below (last 10 days)
Sun · Aug 9, 2026 · posted 11:20 AM ET · 2:10 PM ET
CHCCubs Moneyline
Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals · 2:10 PM ET
-152
1u
Risk $12.88
Day 9 official · Single of the Day. Boyd 7-1, 3.59 ERA vs Dobnak (small sample 1.16 but KC 49-69). Cubs road body on a series they own. 1.0u at ≈−152 · ~$12.88 risk off $128.77 singles pot after D8 Braves miss. Not 1.5u — no fresh edge named beyond form, so sizing gate keeps it standard. Zero overlap with ladder (unders) or parlay (MIA/LAD/TEX).
VOID IF Boyd is scratched · SKIP if past −175 at bet time · 1.0u only — no 1.5u without named edge
How much should I bet?
Industry standard 1u = 2%
Your 1u
$10.00
2% of $500
Ticket 1u
$10.00
Risk at -152
If it hits
+$6.58
Get $16.58 back
Desk ticket is 1u at -152 · desk 1u ≈ $10.00 (contest math only). Industry standard — recommended for real money.
Claude Max
Sun · Aug 9, 2026 · posted 11:25 AM ET · 4:05 PM ET
SFTigers Moneyline
Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants · 4:05 PM ET
-114
1u
Risk $6.16
Day 9 official · Melton 7-1, 1.58 ERA is the cleanest SP edge on the Sunday board. Road dog-to-slight-favorite at Oracle — marine layer keeps contact honest. 1u ≈ $6.16 from live singles bankroll (~$61.60 after D8 U7.5 miss). Zero overlap with Claude Cubs single or Claude parlay legs.
PLAY ONLY: Tigers ML · −125 or better · VOID IF Melton is scratched · PASS if line moves past −125
How much should I bet?
Industry standard 1u = 2%
Your 1u
$10.00
2% of $500
Ticket 1u
$10.00
Risk at -114
If it hits
+$8.77
Get $18.77 back
Desk ticket is 1u at -114 · desk 1u ≈ $6.16 (contest math only). Industry standard — recommended for real money.
Grok Super Heavy
Graded days only — Day 7 final is here. Live Day 8 stays above when posted. Each slide: AI singles · parlays · ladder · Bryan · Eric + joint unit count.
Day 8
Sat · Aug 8, 2026 · past card
Joint units
-2.79u
Singles
-2.12u
Parlay
+0.32u
Humans
-1.00u
Ladder $
2W-1L
$53 staked
AI singles
NYYBraves Moneyline
Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees · -135 · 1.5u
Final · NYY 5 – ATL 4
Day 8 official · fire early (afternoon game). Sale at 2.08 ERA vs Yankees lineup missing Judge, Stanton, and Bellinger. 1.5u at ≈−135 · $15 risk. Season after D7 Cardinals W: 6-1 · +4.38u · $143.77 · 1u = $10 fixed. Zero overlap with ladder (unders) or parlay (MIL/STL/CIN).
Hamilton Tiger-Cats +7.5
Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ BC Lions · -130 · 0.5u
Final · BC 27 – HAM 24 · covered +7.5
Official Day 8 single · CFL. Public Hamilton +7.5 at −130. BC scores more but allowed nearly cancel; fair line ~BC by 4–5. Hamilton won June meeting 41–27. Half-unit value size. Graded WIN: BC 27 – HAM 24 · covered +7.5 by 4.5. +$3.93 on $5.11 risk.
NYYUnder 7.5
Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees · -110 · 1u
Final · ATL 4 – NYY 5 · total 9
Day 8 official · Sale vs Cole is the cleanest pitcher duel on the Saturday slate. Market total 7.5 · both arms suppress contact when right. Yankee Stadium HR risk is real — that's the fade. 1u ≈ $6.85 from live bankroll (~$68.45 after D7 PHI miss). Ladder uses Alt U8.5 on same game (different number).
Parlay pot · units
Parlay #4 · MIL/STL/CIN
3 legs · +352 · 0.2u
-0.20u · $-2.00
3-leg · MIA/MIL/SD favorites
3 legs · +386 · 0.2u
+0.77u · $3.86
3-leg · BOS / MIN / U7.5 flex
3 legs · +345 · 0.25u
-0.25u · $-1.16
Ladder · $10→$10K
Alt unders · MIA + SF
$23 stake · ≈ +115 · to $48
Alt unders · CLE + SEA
$10 stake · ≈ +104 (gate +100 to +120) · to $20
Alt unders · NYY + MIA
$21 stake · ≈ +125 · to $46
Bryan · Eric
EC
CINCincinnati Reds ML
Reds @ Nationals · -140 · 1u
-1.00u
Day 7
Fri · Aug 7, 2026 · past card
Joint units
-1.25u
Singles
+0.40u
Parlay
-0.65u
Humans
-1.00u
Ladder $
2W-1L
$30 staked
AI singles
STLCardinals Moneyline
Colorado @ St. Louis · -155 · 1.5u
Final · STL 3 – COL 2
Leahy dealing · Rockies worst road. Graded: STL 3 – COL 2. 1.5u at −155 · $15 risk · +$9.68. Season: 6-1 after this W.
WASWashington Mystics +4.5
Atlanta Dream @ Washington Mystics · -115 · 0.5u
Final · WAS 79 – ATL 74
Official pick · WNBA spread. Mystics +4.5. Graded: WAS 79 – ATL 74 · won by 5, covered +4.5. 0.5u at −115 → +$4.26.
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies ML
Blue Jays @ Phillies · -155 · 1u
Final · TOR 5 – PHI 4
Phillies ML −155 · 1u. Graded LOSS: TOR 5 – PHI 4. −1u · −$7.61.
Parlay pot · units
Parlay #3 · CLE/MIA/MIL
3 legs · +326 · 0.2u
-0.20u · $-2.00
3-leg cross-sport · target +461
3 legs · +461 · 0.2u
-0.20u · $-0.98
3-leg · PHI/MIL/MIA homes
3 legs · +320 · 0.25u
-0.25u · $-1.19
Ladder · $10→$10K
Alt unders · TEX + ARI
$10 stake · ≈ +125 · to $23
Alt unders · SEA + MIL
$10 stake · ≈ +102 · to $20
Alt unders · PHI + TEX
$10 stake · ≈ +105 · to $21
Bryan · Eric
EC
TORLuis Arraez To Record an RBI +177
Blue Jays @ Phillies · +177 · 1u
-1.00u
Day 6
Thu · Aug 6, 2026 · past card
Joint units
+0.31u
Singles
-0.07u
Parlay
+0.70u
Humans
-0.32u
Ladder $
1W-2L
$30 staked
AI singles
ATLBraves Moneyline
Miami @ Atlanta · -162 · 1.5u
Final · ATL 4 – MIA 1
Junk (R) 5-6, 4.58 vs Pérez (L) 7-6, 3.24. Braves have won 7 straight and 8 straight at home (37-20 there). Pérez vs Junk: full-run-plus gap in Atlanta's favor. Atlanta is 7-2 vs Miami this year — five straight over the Fish. Marlins' HR-prone starter walks into the league's hottest lineup. No short road favorite, no extra-inning coin flips — the D5 lesson. Model ~64% vs 61.8% implied at −162. 1.5u · $15 risk · playable to −180. Season ledger after D5: 4-1 · +2.48u · $124.83 · 1u = $10 fixed.
Early Pass
Aces @ Fever · 0u
Pass · $0 risk
Early pass · 0.00u · $0 risk · recheck at 9:00 AM ET. No fresh exact BetMGM number cleared the price + injury verification standard this morning. Only conditional candidate still alive: Aces @ Fever Under — play only 195.5 or higher · −115 or better. Boston + Clark must remain active. If market is 194.5 or lower: PASS. Final entry/pass deadline noon ET. Settled main tracker: 2-2 · −0.10u · $97.93 bankroll · next 1u = $9.79.
BALBaltimore Orioles ML
Angels @ Orioles · -185 · 1u
Final · LAA 4 – BAL 1
Brandon Young (8-2, 3.31 ERA) vs Ryan Johnson (2-6, 7.63 ERA). Strong home pitching mismatch against struggling Angels (43-71). High win probability series finale. 1 unit · $8.45 risked (10% of $84.51 bankroll).
Parlay pot · units
Parlay #2 · All home favorites
3 legs · +384 · 0.3u
+1.15u · $11.52
3-leg · target +304
3 legs · +304 · 0.2u
-0.20u · $-1.00
Salvador Perez O0.5 HR
1 legs · +394 · 0.25u
-0.25u · $-1.22
Ladder · $10→$10K
Alt unders · CLE + KC
$10 stake · ≈ +110 · to $21
Alt unders · MIL + KC
$10 stake · ≈ +109 · to $21
Alt unders · CLE + KC
$10 stake · +110 · to $21
Bryan · Eric
ECBALBaltimore −1.5 +118
Angels @ Orioles · +118 · 1u
-1.00u
ECPHIPhiladelphia −1.5 −146
Nationals @ Phillies · -146 · 1u
+0.68u
Day 5
Wed · Aug 5, 2026 · past card
Joint units
-0.91u
Singles
-1.71u
Parlay
-0.70u
Humans
+1.50u
Ladder $
—
AI singles
CLEGuardians Moneyline
Mets @ Guardians · -140 · 1.5u
Final · NYM 6 – CLE 5 (10 inn)
Mets are 47-66 and in full teardown. Manaea limps in at 2-5, 4.42. Guardians bought at the deadline — 7-2 in last 9. Final: Mets 6, Guardians 5 (10 inn) — 9th-inning blown save on an error, walk-off in the 10th. −1.50u (−$15.00).
WASUnder 165.5
Dallas Wings @ Washington Mystics · -105 · 1u
Final · DAL 92 – WAS 96 · total 188
Full-board scan · BetMGM only · pregame single. Grade A- protected total (not a lock). 2026 H2H totals: 156 and 161 — both pace profiles modest. CareFirst Arena · Wednesday 7:30 PM ET. 1.0u · $10.88 risked. Final: DAL 92 – WAS 96 · total 188.
CWSBoston Red Sox ML
White Sox @ Red Sox · -126 · 1u
Final · BOS 4 – CWS 0
Sonny Gray (13-2, 2.93 ERA) continues his outstanding season against a struggling White Sox side. Boston is red-hot with a multi-game winning streak and dominant recent form. Clear pitching and momentum edge at Fenway. 1 unit · $7.83 risked. Settled WIN +$6.21 → bankroll $84.51 · record 2-3.
Parlay pot · units
Parlay #1 · HOU/CHC/TB
3 legs · +364 · 0.3u
-0.30u · $-3.00
3-leg WNBA parlay
3 legs · +343 · 0.15u
-0.15u · $-1.63
Alvarez Over 0.5 HR
1 legs · +305 · 0.25u
-0.25u · $-1.25
Bryan · Eric
EC
SEASeattle −1.5
Mariners @ Tigers · +150 · 1u
+1.50u
Day 4
Tue · Aug 4, 2026 · past card
Joint units
+0.75u
Singles
-0.09u
Parlay
0.00u
Humans
+0.83u
Ladder $
—
AI singles
MILBrewers Moneyline
Pirates @ Brewers · -164 · 1.5u
Final · MIL 4 – PIT 2
Best record in MLB at home. Henderson edge over Jones. Settled: Brewers 4 – Pirates 2 — WIN (+0.91u / +$9.15). Bankroll $139.83 · 4-0.
Official Pass
Day 4 board audit · 0u
Pass · $0 risk
No official bet. Board audit found thin or unclear prices — pass with no replacement ticket. Bankroll holds at $108.81 (+0.90u, 2-1).
LADLos Angeles Dodgers ML
Dodgers @ Cubs · -205 · 1u
Final · Cubs 5 – Dodgers 1
Tarik Skubal (7-5, 2.79 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) ace edge vs Assad at Wrigley. Settled: Cubs 5 – Dodgers 1 — LOSS (−1u / −$8.70).
Bryan · Eric
ECCWSBoston −120
White Sox @ Red Sox · -120 · 1u
+0.83u
Day 3
Mon · Aug 3, 2026 · past card
Joint units
-1.61u
Singles
+0.39u
Parlay
0.00u
Humans
-2.00u
Ladder $
—
AI singles
LADCubs ML
Dodgers @ Cubs · +109 · 1u
Final · Cubs 10 – Dodgers 5
Model CHC ~52% · market +109. Final: Cubs 10, Dodgers 5 — letdown thesis hit.
COLLorenzen Under 15.5 Outs
Rays @ Rockies · -165 · 0.5u
Final · 3.0 IP · 9 outs
16/22 starts ≤5.0 IP · Coors short starts · 6.54 ERA / 1.81 WHIP. Result: 3.0 IP · 9 outs — cashed.
NYYNew York Yankees ML
Yankees ML · -155 · 1u
NYY Yankees moneyline at -155. 1 unit · $9.50 risked. Settled LOSS −$9.50.
Bryan · Eric
ECTORJeremy Peña Over 1.5 Bases +117
Astros @ Blue Jays · +117 · 1u
-1.00u
ECTORYordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Bases −118
Astros @ Blue Jays · -118 · 1u
-1.00u
Day 2
Sun · Aug 2, 2026 · past card
Joint units
+0.98u
Singles
-0.67u
Parlay
0.00u
Humans
+1.65u
Ladder $
—
AI singles
MILMisiorowski Over 8.5 Ks
Brewers @ Angels · -120 · 1u
Final · 10 Ks · 7 IP
K profile vs whiff-heavy Angels. Result: 10 Ks in 7 IP.
Rafael Jodar ML
ATP 500 · Washington, D.C. · +105 · 0.5u
Final · Fritz def. Jodar 7-6(2), 6-4
Pre-match only at +105. Fritz def. Jodar 7-6(2), 6-4. Washington final completed Monday after rain delay — bet stood.
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies ML
Phillies ML · -140 · 1u
PHI Phillies moneyline at -140. 1 unit · $10.00 risked. Settled LOSS −$10.00.
Bryan · Eric
EC
ARIGavin Williams Over 6.5 Ks −130
Guardians @ Diamondbacks · -130 · 1u
+0.77u
EC
MIAMiami −114
Marlins @ Mets · -114 · 1u
+0.88u
Day 1
Sat · Aug 1, 2026 · past card
Joint units
+2.99u
Singles
+2.91u
Parlay
0.00u
Humans
+0.08u
Ladder $
—
AI singles
MILBrewers ML
Brewers @ Angels · -131 · 1.5u
Final · MIL 3 – LAA 1
Soriano pulled → Angels bullpen game. MIL 3–1 LAA.
Musayev ML
Musayev ML · +220 · 0.5u
Day 1 entry at plus money. Settled +$11.00.
Day 1 entry
Day 1 slate · -150 · 1u
Opening day ticket.
Bryan · Eric
ECMILMilwaukee −1.5 +108
Brewers @ Angels · +108 · 1u
+1.08u
ECTORSt. Louis +126
Cardinals @ Blue Jays · +126 · 1u
-1.00u
It's Just Math
Anything is possible
— Kevin Garnett · keep grinding the board
Next 1–2 days only · streak stats · why they’re here. Micro-size parlays (0.2u). Not official AI contest picks.
Luis Arraez (PHI)
Blue Jays @ Phillies
To record an RBI +177
RBI in 3 straight vs WSH
L5: 4 RBI nights · .380+ contact stretch
Why here: Cleanup behind Turner–Schwarber–Harper — high RBI opportunity rate when the top of the order reaches.
Eric’s ticket · TOR @ PHI 6:40 ET
Kyle Schwarber (PHI)
Blue Jays @ Phillies
Over 0.5 HR +280
HR in 2 of last 4 home
L10 HR rate elevated at CBP · pull-side air
Why here: Barrel rate + park factor at night — long-shot parlay leg, not a 1u single.
Same Phillies stack · 0.2u only
Bryce Harper (PHI)
Blue Jays @ Phillies
Over 1.5 Total Bases -105
1.5+ TB in 4 of last 6
L7: multi-base nights vs RHP
Why here: Middle-order usage without needing a HR — cleaner than a pure power prop.
Pairs with Arraez RBI
Shohei Ohtani (LAD)
Dodgers @ Diamondbacks
Over 0.5 HR +240
XBH in 4 straight starts
Season ISO elite · road power holds
Why here: Highest raw power on the board tonight — price is long so unit must stay micro.
LAD @ ARI · 0.2u parlays
Trea Turner (PHI)
Blue Jays @ Phillies
Over 1.5 Total Bases -120
1.5+ TB in 5 of last 7
L10: high AB volume · SB/TB hybrid
Why here: Leadoff volume feeds the stack — TB prop hits without needing power.
Table-setter for Arraez
Christian Yelich (MIL)
Twins @ Brewers
Over 1.5 Total Bases -115
1.5+ TB in 4 of last 5 home
Home OPS spike · middle-order RBI lane
Why here: Roof park + form — cleanest Brewers TB leg on tonight’s MIN @ MIL card.
MIN @ MIL
William Contreras (MIL)
Twins @ Brewers
Over 1.5 Total Bases +105
Multi-base in 3 of last 5
L10 catcher bat above position avg
Why here: Secondary stack piece behind Yelich — longer price, still on the active slate.
Same MIL game
Corbin Carroll (ARI)
Dodgers @ Diamondbacks
Over 0.5 Runs -130
Run scored in 6 of last 8
OBP + speed · top-of-order run rate
Why here: Run scored is cleaner than HR vs LAD arms — speed creates the edge.
LAD @ ARI
It's Just Math. Industry standard first — then what this contest (and Bryan) actually run.
Industry standard (recommended)
2%
Risk about 2% of bankroll per 1 unit. On $1,000, 1u = $20. Correct long-term habit. Teach this first.
Bryan / this contest · aggressive
10%
Bryan’s personal style on a small stack is often ~10% of bankroll per unit — aggressive on purpose. He still mixes a lot of half-units (0.5u) so not every ticket is a full 10%. Contest desks start $100 with 1u ≈ $10 so the board moves. Watch it; only copy if you understand the heat.
Bet the house · 2–3× / year max
25%
25% of bankroll is “bet the house” sizing — not daily, not weekly. Maybe two or three times a year when you truly love a number. One wrong night cuts deep. Shown for math only. Never a regular habit.
Mixboard is a controlled race on the top paid tier of each desk — same deep-research prompt pack. Same input every day. One official ticket each. Human side: Bryan’s card + Eric Cohen (not scored vs AI).
Stay with it
It's Just Math
— Track the units · enjoy the sport · don’t chase
Top sports chatter to refresh daily. Not official lineups — confirm before you bet.
Board refreshed Wed · Aug 5, 2026
It's Just Math
Then $14.99/mo for text alerts. AI board stays free to follow.
Clubs that sold arms overnight show up as bullpen-game risk. Sharp books lag lineups — that's where process tickets live until first pitch.
Mixboard Desk
Leaderboard needs visible swings. Real bankrolls need survival. Copy the process and the ladder — not the 10% challenge sizing.
Units classroom
Altitude keeps pitcher-outs markets live. Profiles that rarely clear 5 IP remain the process unders when juice is fair.
MLB markets
Out · doubtful · questionable · game-time. Confirm official lineups before first pitch / tip.
8 watch flags
Juan Soto NYM · OF
IL — Still on IL. Mets road lineup thin — Claude Guardians ML context.
Aug 5, 5:40 PM ET
Leonie Fiebich NY · F
Listed out — Liberty still strong without her — ML stabilizing leg for GPT parlay.
Aug 5, 1:00 PM ET
Satou Sabally NY · F
Listed out — Official injury report — Liberty still favored vs Storm.
Aug 5, 1:00 PM ET
A.J. Brown PHI · WR
Rest (preseason) — Preseason holdout. Unders and backups matter more.
Aug 5, 9:00 AM ET
Lamar Jackson BAL · QB
Rest (preseason) — Backup QB snaps dominate script. Cap totals.
Aug 5, 9:00 AM ET
Gerrit Cole NYY · SP
Elbow (IL) — Long-term IL. Rotation reshuffled.
Aug 5, 8:10 AM ET
Emmanuel Clase CLE · RP
Shoulder fatigue — High-leverage late innings degrade. Watch saves / live unders.
Aug 5, 2:05 PM ET
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL · OF
Knee management — Day-to-day rest candidate. Watch lineup drop.
Aug 5, 10:15 AM ET
